Monthly volume went from under $5 billion to roughly $24 billion in seven months. Federal CFTC rails rather than state licences mean a national footprint from launch.
Combined monthly volume on regulated prediction markets rose from under $5B in September 2025 to roughly $24B by April 2026. Kalshi alone traded $39.7B in the trailing year to February 2026.
Regulated federally by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) as designated contract markets. Campaign geography is a strategy choice, not a legal constraint — with a small contested-state watchlist we manage as litigation resolves.
87% of Kalshi’s trailing-year volume was sports. That puts the buy exactly where sports betting money already goes — but without the state-by-state licence map.
The category leaders are spending right now to define the space. Attention is cheap, shelf space is open, and early advertisers lock in positions late arrivals pay multiples to contest.
| Status | States | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Restricted | NV, MD | Nevada upheld by the Ninth Circuit (Mar 2026); Maryland injunction denied |
| Contested | AZ, CT, IL | CFTC sued to block state enforcement (Apr 2026) |
| Contested | NJ, TN | Kalshi holds injunctions; trading continues |
| Live | All others | National by default via CFTC-regulated exchanges |
Buy the same live-sport inventory sports betting operators fight over — without planning around 31 separate state regimes.
A category defining itself in public. Brand recall built now costs a fraction of what it will cost in eighteen months.
| Route | Timing | Read |
|---|---|---|
| The Upfront | 12–18 months ahead | Billion-dollar commitments. Wrong door for a market entrant. |
| Scatter | 2–13 weeks ahead | Your linear entry. Flexible, market-priced, includes local DMA buys |
| Programmatic CTV | Days | Your fastest entry. Geo-fencing built in. Minimums $25K–$50K |
| Managed service | Weeks | Direct with Hulu, Peacock, Amazon, YouTube. $100K+ minimums |
The operational surprise nobody warns you about: most US networks require a US-registered entity, US credit, or a US-based Agency of Record to transact at all. We are that AOR. One signature and you’re transactable in America.
| Format | Typical CPM | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Live sport (NFL / NBA) | $18–$40+ | Most expensive inventory in US TV — and the best betting adjacency |
| Broadcast primetime | $13–$30+ | Mass reach, trust halo |
| Premium CTV | $13–$30 | Geo-fenced, measured, brand-safe |
| Programmatic CTV | $8–$23 | The workhorse of a compliant launch |
| National cable | $4–$18 | Efficient frequency layer |
| AVOD (Tubi, Pluto, Roku) | $6–$15 | Cheap incremental households |
| Local broadcast / cable | $3–$10 | Licensed-state DMAs at regional cost |
Licence map confirmed. Target states, audiences and budget set. State-by-state plan across linear DMAs and CTV. Creative brief agreed.
Script to finished spot. We produce your broadcast-ready creative, included. Compliance and responsible-gaming elements built in at production, not patched in after a rejection.
Network clearances secured. CTV campaigns built with state geo-fencing. Linear placements booked.
Live on CTV, linear flights begin. Measurement baseline set from day one: geo-level incrementality design, promo tracking, MMM inputs.
Matched-market designs across DMAs and states. The gold standard for proving TV causes growth, not just correlates with it.
Every impression logged by household geography, feeding cost-per-install and cost-per-first-time-depositor by state, daypart and creative.
Minute-by-minute response in downloads, site traffic and brand search after every linear spot airs.
TV’s contribution read alongside every other channel, so budget follows evidence, not attribution bias.
Weekly reporting: cost per install and cost per first-time depositor, by state, by daypart, by creative. If TV isn’t paying back, we’ll be the ones to show you.
Every vertical mapped. Footprints sized, buying routes explained, costs benchmarked, compliance and measurement laid out.
Tell us what you’re trying to do in the US. We’ll come back within one business day.
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Every vertical mapped, media footprints sized, buying mechanisms explained, costs benchmarked, and the compliance and measurement frameworks laid out end to end.
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